It is worth paying attention to where Qualcomm will go in the future under pressure tearing.

Qualcomm is the most important supplier of ZTE mobile phones. Research firm IHSMarkit data shows that last year, ZTE mobile phone global shipments were 46.4 million, and more than half used Qualcomm Snapdragon chips. ZTE’s flagship mobile phone uses the Qualcomm Snapdragon 820 and 617 chips.

Qualcomm earned 22 billion U.S. dollars last year. CounterpointResearch analyst told the author that if the price of each chip is 25 US dollars, then the revenue generated by Qualcomm from ZTE will be close to 500 million US dollars. Analysts from another research institute, Canalys, predict that Qualcomm accounts for more than 65% of ZTE's mobile phone chip share.

However, the business loss is not entirely affected. The high ground occupied by Qualcomm makes it the most easily targeted target for Sino-U.S. trade frictions, especially in China, where the enthusiasm for the development of 5G technologies is rising. Companies represented by Huawei and ZTE are rising to become "world champions."

This makes Qualcomm's situation quite embarrassing. On the one hand, in the Chinese market, Qualcomm will face competition from local companies; on the other hand, many Chinese handset manufacturers still rely heavily on Qualcomm's chips.

Not only that, US operators also need to carry Qualcomm's mobile phones. If ZTE cannot use Qualcomm's chips, it means that ZTE's handsets will be difficult to sell through US operator channels. Since ZTE accounts for about one-fourth of the U.S. mobile phone market, operators will also face difficulties.

Canalys analyst Jia Mo told the author: “ZTE, Huawei, and US operator AT&T had previously maintained a good relationship of cooperation. If we want to cut off the connection with Huawei and ZTE, the operator is also a last resort.”

The more significant impact is that Qualcomm’s acquisition of NXP’s US$44 billion has yet to be approved by China’s regulatory authorities. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed concern about this merger and acquisition case and believes that it is difficult to meet antitrust supervision requirements. Qualcomm has withdrawn its offer on Monday and has re-declared it.

Taking these factors into account, in the Sino-U.S. trade frictions, Qualcomm’s “embolism” has not only lost important consumer markets in the United States, but also gave way to competitors to fill market vacancies, and will also face the risk of acquiring NXP's resistance.

Since this year, Qualcomm has faced a series of troubles such as Broadcom’s hostile takeovers. In the past three months, the stock price has fallen by nearly 20%, and the current market value is about 82 billion US dollars.

Former Chairman of Qualcomm and Paul Jacobs, the founder family, are brewing the company's privatization process. Last month, a person familiar with chip company ARM disclosed to the author that Jacobs is negotiating with strategic investors and sovereign wealth funds and hopes to privatize the company. But Jacobs owns Qualcomm's equity less than 1%, which also means that Jacobs needs to raise a lot of funds for privatization.

"Considering that this is a large-scale capital, Qualcomm's privatization process will not be completed soon. This is a long-term process." MoorInsights & Strategy founder PatrickMoorhead told the author.

Last year, Apple’s lawsuit against intellectual property rights also made Qualcomm hurt. Apple is not willing to pay Qualcomm’s core wireless technology patent fees, and Qualcomm asked China to ban all Apple iPhones that use Qualcomm’s wireless communications technology. Historically, Qualcomm has consistently maintained a strategy of winning with patents.

The financial report released by Qualcomm in the first quarter of this year showed that the pretax income from the patent licensing business was US$887 million, a decrease of 42% year-on-year, mainly because Apple did not pay royalties, and Apple’s patent-related royalties were as high as US$740 million. As a result, Qualcomm’s chip sales business has exceeded patent licensing and has become the company’s most important source of revenue.

In recent years, China is vigorously developing local semiconductor and chip manufacturing industries to reduce its dependence on overseas chip makers.

In the short term, if the supply of overseas high-end chips is not available, it will have an impact on the Chinese market. However, in the long run, China will independently develop high-end chip products.

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