Thermal power investment continues to decline tighter in winter and next spring

CEC predicts that the biggest power gap in the country this winter and next spring will be between 30 million and 40 million kilowatts, which is more intense than in the first three quarters of 2011. Except for the northwest and northeast power grids, the supply and demand situation in other regions continues to be tense.

Comparing with historical data, it is found that the monthly power generation of thermal power continues to exceed 300 billion kilowatt-hours this year, which is in line with the peaks in August and December 2010.

At the same time, the newly added scale and total investment in thermal power installations have been declining. In the first three quarters of this year, the new installed capacity of thermal power was the smallest since 2008.

The proportion of investment in thermal power, investment scale, and new installed capacity have been declining in recent years. According to CEC statistics, as of the end of September, the country’s newly-added power generation capacity for infrastructure construction was 49.62 million kilowatts, a decrease of 2.24 million kilowatts year-on-year. Among them, the newly installed capacity of thermal power plants increased by 8.8% year-on-year, and continued to be lower than the thermal power generation capacity and the growth rate of the entire society's electricity consumption. In the first three quarters of the year, the new construction of thermal power in China was 12.62 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 13.38 million kilowatts.

Looking at the scale of investment, in the first three quarters, thermal power and wind power investment all showed negative growth, and their share of total investment decreased year-on-year. Among them, thermal power investment reached 74.2 billion yuan, the lowest value in the past three years, accounting for 30.6% of the investment in power, a year-on-year drop of 7 percentage points.

According to industry analysts, the reason why power investment has slowed down is that due to the influence of the national macro-control policy, monetary policy is tight, which affects the investment and construction of power plants. Second, it is limited by the state's policy of regulating the size of thermal power, and the approval of thermal power projects is slowing down; It is the increase in the debt ratio of thermal power companies, the tightening of bank credit policies, and the reduction in investment.

The loss in the power industry is an important factor in the significant drop in thermal power investment. “The day when thermal power was put into operation was at the time of loss. Some thermal power projects in Shanxi Province got roads, but they did not start construction. After they were completed, they postponed production,” said the Shanxi Electric Power Industry Association.

According to the internal data of the power company, all major profits of the five major power companies have been losing since October. As of the end of October, the five major power companies suffered a loss of 70 billion yuan, which was in line with the total loss in 2010. At present, only thermal power plants in Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang are profitable.

"Not only thermal power, but due to insufficient water storage, hydropower is also in a state of loss. At present, only nuclear power and other energy sources generate electricity profitable." The aforementioned CEC source said.

Due to drought during the flood season, the main reservoir was insufficient for water storage, and hydroelectric power generation dropped sharply. In the third quarter of this year, hydropower generation recorded negative growth for the first time since 2005, a year-on-year increase of -14.7%.

In October, hydropower provinces such as Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hubei, and Hunan experienced significant declines in their hydropower output. Among them, Guangxi, Guizhou power generation fell more than 50% year-on-year.

On November 16, the National Development and Reform Commission released data showing that the national hydropower generation in October was 50.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%. From January to October, the cumulative hydropower generation in the country totaled 517.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%.

“On the other hand, the installed capacity of new hydropower has been reduced year by year since 2008, which is also a major factor affecting hydropower output. The scale of hydropower construction is expected to be around 13 million kilowatts this year,” said the expert from the aforementioned CEC.

The person in charge of Huaneng Yujiang Hydropower Development told the reporter: “This year, the pace of hydropower development has slowed down. In the past, 15 million kilowatts were approved every year. Due to environmental and immigration constraints, the state has been cautious about the approval of hydropower projects. This year, the newly added scale of hydropower is less than 15 million. kilowatt."