LCD panel will recover again in the second half of the year

In the large-size TFT panel market, although the flat-panel TV market has become saturated, the growth of flat-panel TVs driven by the large-screen, ultra-high-definition, and new cutting sizes, as well as the energy conservation subsidies of the Chinese government's “New Energy Conservation” still inject into the panel market. The new vitality will allow the LCD panel market to pick up again in the second half of this year. In the small- and medium-sized panel market, the demand for higher-performance large-screen smart phones has grown significantly, which has promoted the development of integrated panels and touch technologies, and the integration of touch control and display devices has also grown substantially. Together with the accelerated expansion of tablet PCs and the steady development of notebook computers, LCD panels will continue to grow.

TV panels tend to saturate demand from developed countries and regions. Panels are entering a stagnant period. Demand for TV panels currently comes mainly from emerging economies.

After several years of rapid growth, LCD TV panels have entered a relatively saturated period. Last year, shipments declined for the first time. Especially in developed countries and regions such as North America, Western Europe and Japan, the high volume of flat-panel TVs has led to a period of stagnation in panel demand. The demand for TV panels currently comes mainly from emerging economies represented by China. In the second half of this year, the government benefited from the subsidies of the Chinese government’s “New Energy Conservation” and the price wars of Jingdong Mall and Suning’s e-commerce sites. The retail of TV terminals continued to improve, leading domestic mainstream TV manufacturers to increase their panel purchases. NPD DisplaySearch data shows that in July of this year, domestic TV manufacturers' LCD panel purchases increased by 10% from the previous month. August and September continue to rise, and will decline in October. It is expected that panel shipments will rebound in November and reach the highest point of the year.

Vice President of NPD DisplaySearch Greater China Xie Qinyi pointed out at the 2012 China Flat Panel Display Conference in Shanghai that thanks to the recovery of demand, shipments of LCD TV panels for the full year 2012 are expected to reach 227 million units. The European and American economies have continued to slump, and emerging economies have shown tremendous vitality. The major market development space for flat-panel TVs is in the emerging economies market, which has largely changed the product and market plans of panel makers.

Due to the increase in demand, coupled with the previous output reductions from panel makers, LCD TV panel prices showed a recovery trend in the second quarter of 2012. There are still certain sizes in the third quarter due to continued tighter prices due to tighter supply, and tight supply conditions in the fourth quarter cannot be achieved. It has been fundamentally improved, so panel prices continue to rise.

Big picture, ultra high definition is the new bright spot of the TV panel In the US "Black Friday" promotion by the end of this year, there will be a $ 799 60-inch large-screen LCD TV.

With the ever-increasing demands on people's perception of the field, and the impact of the successive generations of high-level panel makers, continuous improvement of technology, and the gradual reduction of costs, coupled with ultra-high definition display requirements for screen size, LCD TV panels The "big picture" arms race has intensified, and panel makers are mass producing increasingly larger panels. Xie Qinyi told the "China Electronics News" reporter that the current panel manufacturers have mass-produced LCD television panels from 56 inches up to 100 inches. In terms of end-products, the most exciting news is that at the end of this year, the United States’ "Black Friday" promotion will have a 60-inch large-screen LCD TV with $999 or even $799. Such a low-cost large-screen TV will allow LCD TVs to quickly enter the era of large screens, and it will also allow panel makers to enter into a new era in size.

This year is the first year of 4K ultra high definition display. After the international telecommunications union ITU established 4k and 8k ultra high definition display standards, major panel manufacturers are actively developing ultra high definition panels. Currently, the world's top 5 panel makers all have plans for the development of 4k resolution panel products, and will launch corresponding products in this year. Ultra HD corresponds to a large screen, and panel makers plan to launch 4k panels between 55 and 84 inches, with over 60 inches of products. Although there are currently no 4k-definition programs available for viewers to watch, 4k-resolution home video cameras have been launched, and users who enjoy early adopters can make ultra-high-definition programs for viewing. The reporter synthesized a wide range of information and views and believes that 4K ultra high-definition television can enter the popularity phase in about 5 years. At this stage, input from panel makers will receive significant results in the coming years.

Since the beginning of this year, the continuous improvement of panel processing technology has led panel makers to seek more economic cutting methods. Many new TV panel sizes have emerged, such as 28-inch, 29-inch, 39-inch, 50-inch, 58-inch, and 60-inch. With 65-inch and so on, these new-size products also play a key role in the growth of shipments. Due to the shortage of 40-inch and 46-inch panel prices, the sales of the new 39-inch and 50-inch LCD TVs exceeded expectations, becoming a surprise for panel makers this year. The economical cutting of the panel allows panel makers to significantly increase their profitability. The new size also allows TV manufacturers to have more flexible size options.

In addition, LED backlighting has basically replaced traditional CCFL backlighting to become the mainstream of current flat panel backlighting. Active 3D, polarized 3D, and naked-eye 3D panels are also new technologies that have continued to develop in recent years. Especially in mainland China, 3D panel shipments have accounted for 30%, far higher than the global average.

The growing demand for smartphones and tablet PCs to grow stronger and stronger on smartphones with higher performance and larger screens will boost the demand for LCD panels for mobile phones.

The smart phone is undoubtedly the most powerful of all the devices that use the screen. NPD DisplaySearch expects smartphone sales to reach 673 million units in 2012, and smart phones with panel sizes of 4 inches and above will account for 20% of all handset shipments. The increasing demand for smart phones with higher performance and larger screens will boost the demand for LCD panels for mobile phones.

In terms of mobile PCs, shipments of notebooks and tablets are increasing. In 2012, shipments of notebook PCs are expected to increase by 13% year-on-year, while total shipments of tablet PCs are expected to increase by 61% from last year. This year, tablet PC panel makers are targeting 77.8 million 9.7-inch panel shipments, including the iPad 2, the new iPad, and their own-brand tablet PCs. 10.1 inch tablet panel shipments are expected to exceed 17 million this year. The 10.6-inch panel shipments used by Microsoft's Surface tablet will also surge in the second half of this year. Xie Qinyi is quite optimistic about the market prospects of Microsoft's Surface tablet. He believes that it will rely on the good foundation laid by Microsoft in the Windows operating system. It will grow very well in the next year or two. It will contribute to the change of the supply chain and may have a huge impact on the industry. Tablet PC industry has entered a faster development zone.

Apple’s newly released iPhone 5 uses a 4-inch 1136×640 resolution panel, which still maintains a resolution density of 326ppi. The panel is the highest resolution in the current 4-inch panel, but its resolution density is the same as that of the iPhone 4. Apple's mobile phones have always set new standards for the specifications of mobile phone displays, so the industry speculates that 4.0-inch-class mobile phone screens will advance to a resolution density of more than 300ppi. Samsung’s latest Galaxy Note2 phone uses a 5.3-inch 1280×800 resolution screen with a resolution density of 285 ppi.

For mobile phones, high-resolution, large-size panels have become quite important specifications. In 2012, the proportion of mobile phones using panels with a resolution density of more than 300 ppi was 17%, which was a jump compared to last year's 8%. In 2011, panel makers shipped only 144,000 high-resolution mobile phone panels exceeding 300 ppi, and it is expected to ship 290,000 tablets this year. In the future, more and more mobile phones will be equipped with panels with larger size and higher density resolution. In the next few years, the pursuit of higher resolution competition will continue to amplify the market for mobile phone panels exceeding 300ppi. The mobile phone panel exceeding 300ppi will have a 22% market share in 2013, and it is expected to reach 30% in 2016. .

On the one hand, consumers want to have a larger mobile phone screen and a more detailed picture. On the other hand, they hope that the longer the standby time and the use time of mobile phones, the better. This demand is a great challenge for mobile phone panel manufacturers.

Xie Qinyi pointed out that the smart phone panel uses the front panel technology of the current panel industry: a larger screen, higher resolution, lower power consumption, wider viewing angle, higher contrast, lighter weight, and lower cost. Also add various touch screen technologies. It can be said that all the most advanced technologies are concentrated on the screen of smart phones.

Given the consumer's high expectations for the iPhone 5, the productivity of LTPS TFT LCDs may be boosted. The increase in AMOLED panel production is expected to expand sales of the Samsung Galaxy S3. In addition, shipments of 7-inch mid-range tablet LCD panels may increase due to new tablet models introduced later this year, such as the legendary Apple iPad mini.

Xie Qinyi, vice president of NPD DisplaySearch Greater China, pointed out: "Although the recovery of the panel industry is very modest, both shipments and revenue growth indicate that the TFT LCD panel industry is recovering from price declines and supply chain inventory adjustments. ”

Xie Qinyi added: “The panel makers are rapidly adapting to changes in demand and developing new technologies, functions, and sizes. Chinese LCD makers are rapidly increasing production, and manufacturers in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are adjusting and deploying new technologies. Processes to improve cost and display performance."